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SRM University – AP Study: Prediction of End-Time of COVID-19 Spread in AP

In the current pandemic situation, a pertinent question is an estimate of the time by which virus spread could be contained and normalcy would return.  In this context, Prof. D. Narayana Rao, Pro Vice Chancellor, SRM University – AP initiated the study.

Dr. Soumyajyoti Biswas of SRM University AP, along with 4 B.Tech Students have carried out an interesting study to predict the end time of COVID-19 spread in the state of Andhra Pradesh.

The study employed Susceptible – Infected – Recovered (SIR) Model, making use of the information on the COVID-19 affected people and the recovered number of people, which the Government of AP makes it available through the control command center.

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SRM Team made use of this data, employed SIR Model and applied the methods of Machine Learning.  Study reveals that by July 15th 2021, the rate of infection in AP will be below 100 per day.

With the assumption that the decay rate of infection is same as the growth rate, the model predicts that the number of infected people could be 10,000 (May 21), 15,000 (May 30),    1000 (June 14), 500 (June 23) and 100 (July 15)

The above report has been submitted to the Special Chief Secretary to the Hon’ble Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh.

 

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